Spatial heterogeneity and environmental predictors of permafrost region soil organic carbon stocks.

Large stocks of soil organic carbon (SOC) have accumulated in the Northern Hemisphere permafrost region, but their current amounts and future fate remain uncertain. By analyzing dataset combining >2700 soil profiles with environmental variables in a geospatial framework, we generated spatially explicit estimates of permafrost-region SOC stocks, quantified spatial heterogeneity, and identified key environmental predictors. We estimated that Pg C are stored in the top 3 m of permafrost region soils. The greatest uncertainties occurred in circumpolar toe-slope positions and in flat areas of the Tibetan region. We found that soil wetness index and elevation are the dominant topographic controllers and surface air temperature (circumpolar region) and precipitation (Tibetan region) are significant climatic controllers of SOC stocks. Our results provide first high-resolution geospatial assessment of permafrost region SOC stocks and their relationships with environmental factors, which are crucial for modeling the response of permafrost affected soils to changing climate.

Early life history transitions and recruitment of Picea mariana in thawed boreal permafrost peatlands.

Black spruce (Picea mariana) is the most abundant tree species in the boreal biome, but little is known about how climate warming may change recruitment in peatlands, especially those affected by permafrost thaw. We used results from a seven-year study in northern Manitoba, Canada, to address the following questions: (1) What is the relative importance of early life history transitions on P. mariana recruitment? (2) How are these transitions mediated by biological and environmental factors, including competition, facilitation, disease, herbivory, water table depth, and soil nutrients? (3) Do interactions among these factors create additional recruitment limitations beyond those imposed by environmental factors changing with climate warming, such as hydrology? Seed rain was measured over six years on forested permafrost plateaus and in neighboring collapse scar bogs. Seed germination and seedling survival and growth were measured over 4-5 years in collapse scars and assessed across a three-level water table treatment. Survival and growth experiments examined additional combinations of above- and belowground vascular plant competition and fertilizer addition. Results showed that failure of germination and survival on growing moss surfaces and reduced survival of seedlings in wetter microsites were primary constraints. Seed influx was significantly lower in collapse scars but likely did not limit recruitment. Biological and environmental factors mediating these life history transitions also differed in relative importance, and interactions among them tended to amplify recruitment limitation. Seedling survival was most strongly controlled by fast-growing mosses in wet microsites but also was influenced by apparent drowning in wet plots, herbivory, and loss of foliage caused by a fungal pathogen. Seedling growth was strongly controlled by water table depth, nutrient and competition levels, and fungal pathogens. Multiple, interacting factors will affect P. mariana establishment in boreal peatlands during climate warming. Generalizations about recruitment relying on few environmental gradients sensitive to climate change, such as water table, may therefore not fully capture the complexities of establishment.